CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-07-09T15:09:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2013 Jul 10 1217 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30710
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Jul 2013, 1207UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Jul 2013 until 12 Jul 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 003
COMMENT:Solar flaring activity mainly originated from Catania sunspot group 26
(NOAA AR 1787), featuring 3 C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The C4.9
flare at 6h40 UT on the 10th was the largest one. For the next 48 hours
C-flaring activity is expected to continue, with Catania sunspot groups 24
and 26 (NOAA AR 1785 and 1787) as main source candidates. LASCO/C2
detected a halo CME at 15h24 UT on the 9th. It was associated with a broad
filament eruption (NE to SW oriented) in the northern hemisphere. The CME
is travelling with an estimated speed of 440 km/s and is expected to arrive
at Earth on the 13th around 13h UT. A shock in the solar wind speed was
observed at 20h UT on the 9th. Solar wind speed currently is at 440 km/s.
The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is around 10 nT, with a
mainly negative z-component. Geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active
and are expected to remain so for the next few hours, before returning to
quiet conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 054, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 09 Jul 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 125
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 120
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 027
AK WINGST : 015
ESTIMATED AP : 012
ESTIMATED ISN : 074, BASED ON 27 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END
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:Issued: 2013 Jul 11 1206 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30711
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Jul 2013, 1207UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Jul 2013 until 13 Jul 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jul 2013 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 036
COMMENT:Solar flaring activity was eruptive during the past 24 hours. Catania
sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 1785) was responsible for the main event, a C2.0
class flare with a peak at 00h04 UT on the 11th. For the next 48 hours
C-class flaring activity is expected to continue. No geo-effective CMEs
were observed. Current geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active (K=3
to 4) and are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels in the next
few hours. Geomagnetic storm levels (K=5 to 6) can be reached from 13h UT
on the 13th due to arrival of the CME that erupted on the 9th.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 051, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Jul 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 085
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 118
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 026
AK WINGST : 031
ESTIMATED AP : 033
ESTIMATED ISN : 051, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END
BT
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to #
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